NDA Maths · Probability
Classical Probability & Counting
Probability as a counting ratio — favourable outcomes over total — applied to cards, dice, coins, arrangements, and number selections.
Why this matters
Start here. Every other probability subtopic — event algebra, independence, conditional probability, Bayes — is built on the classical idea below: count the favourable outcomes, count the total, divide. This is the single largest slice of the NDA Probability bank (85 questions across dice, coins, balls, arrangements, and number-selection problems), and the easy marks live here — roughly a third of the bank is EASY. Master the counting (combinations, sample-space size, the complement trick) and the rest of the chapter becomes bookkeeping.
Concept 1 of 8
What is probability? (Random experiments, sample space, events)
Intuition
Definition
Four pieces of vocabulary the whole chapter rests on:
- A random experiment has a known set of possible results but an unpredictable individual result.
- The sample space is the set of all outcomes — for one die .
- An event is any subset ; it occurs when the actual outcome lies in .
- Outcomes are equally likely when symmetry gives no reason to prefer one over another (a fair die, a fair coin) — the assumption the classical definition rests on.
Diagram · event = subset of the sample space
The sample space S is all six equally likely outcomes; the event E is the subset {4, 5, 6}. For equally likely outcomes, P(E) is simply the number of favourable outcomes over the total.
Worked example
- List every ordered outcome of the two coins: , so .
- "At least one head" excludes only : .
- Count: .
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Practice — Level 1 (4 reps)
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- 1.Sample space when a single die is rolled?
- 2.How many outcomes when two dice are rolled?
- 3.A coin is tossed 3 times. How many outcomes?
- 4.On one die, list the event "an even number".
An event is a SET of outcomes, not a single outcome
Write or size the sample space before you count anything
Concept 2 of 8
Classical (theoretical) probability
Intuition
Definition
For a finite sample space of equally likely outcomes, the probability of an event is — favourable outcomes over total outcomes. Because , every probability lies between and . This is the *classical* (or theoretical) definition; it fails the moment the outcomes are not equally likely (a loaded die), where each outcome must be weighted instead.
Classical probability
- number of outcomes that make occur
- total number of equally likely outcomes
Worked example
- Total outcomes: (each ball equally likely).
- Favourable: there are 5 red balls, so .
- Divide: .
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Practice — Level 1 (4 reps)
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- 1.for a fair coin?
- 2.on a die?
- 3.from 52 cards?
- 4.from 52 cards?
From the bank · past-year question
[Q111 · Apr · 2017]
The classical formula needs EQUALLY LIKELY outcomes
Favourable is a subset of total, so can never exceed 1
Concept 3 of 8
Axioms, range, complement, and odds
Intuition
Definition
- Range + axioms: for any event , , with (certain) and (impossible).
- Complement: (" does not occur") satisfies .
- Odds: odds in favour of of give ; odds against of give .
Complement rule and range
- complement of — the event that does not occur
- probability of the impossible event, equal to
Worked example
- (i) Complement: .
- (ii) Odds in favour mean 3 favourable parts out of : .
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- 1.. Find .
- 2.Odds in favour . Find .
- 3.Odds against an event . Find .
- 4.Can ?
From the bank · past-year question
[Q105 · Sep · 2021]
Odds are not probability: in favour means , not
"At least one…" almost always means use the complement
Concept 4 of 8
Selection probability with combinations
Intuition
Definition
Choosing objects from where order is irrelevant has total outcomes. If the objects split into types (say of one kind and of another) and you want of the first kind, the favourable count is . Then .
Selection probability (combinations)
- counts of the two types of object
- how many of the first type the event requires
- total number drawn
Worked example
- Total ways to draw 3 from 9: .
- Favourable: choose 2 red from 5 and 1 blue from 4: .
- Divide: .
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- 1.
- 2.Choose 2 from 6 — total ways?
- 3.Bag of 3 red, 2 green; draw 2. ?
- 4.From 5 people, a 2-person committee is chosen. ?
From the bank · past-year question
[Q104 · Sep · 2025]
"Drawn together / selected at random" means order does NOT matter — use , not permutations
"At least one of a type" is fastest via the complement
Concept 5 of 8
Probability with dice
Intuition
Definition
- One die: , .
- Two dice: ordered pairs; the sum ranges to with the most likely (6 ways).
- ** dice:** .
- Non-standard or loaded die (faces repeated, or weighted) no longer has equally likely faces — weight each face by its own probability rather than using .
Two-dice sample space
- ordered pair: on the first die, on the second
Visualization · two-dice sample space
Each of the 36 cells is one equally-likely ordered outcome (first die, second die). The highlighted anti-diagonal is the event "sum = 7"; its size over 36 is the probability. The count peaks at 6 for a sum of 7 and tapers to 1 at sums 2 and 12.
Worked example
- Total outcomes: .
- Count pairs by sum: sum : 4 ways; sum : 3; sum : 2; sum : 1. Total .
- Divide: .
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- 1.for two dice?
- 2.with two dice?
- 3.with two dice?
- 4.with two dice?
From the bank · past-year question
[Q114 · Apr · 2018]
Two-dice outcomes are ORDERED pairs: and are different
Loaded or non-standard dice: faces are NOT equally likely
Concept 6 of 8
Probability with coins
Intuition
Definition
- **Fair coin, tosses:** , every sequence equally likely; exactly heads occurs in of them.
- **Biased coin, :** a specific sequence with heads and tails has probability .
- At least one head in fair tosses: .
Coin tosses
- number of tosses
- probability of a head on one toss ( if fair)
Diagram · two coin tosses → 2² = 4 outcomes
Each toss branches into H or T with probability ½, and the branches multiply: every leaf is ½ × ½ = ¼. Tossing n coins gives 2ⁿ equally likely outcomes — so "at least one head" is easiest via the complement, 1 − P(all tails).
Worked example
- Total sequences: .
- Complement "no head" is the single sequence : .
- So .
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- 1.for 3 coin tosses?
- 2.Fair coin, 3 tosses: ?
- 3.Fair coin, 2 tosses: ?
- 4.Biased coin : in 2 tosses?
From the bank · past-year question
[Q103 · Apr · 2023]
Sequences are ordered:
Biased coin: do not use equally-likely counting
Concept 7 of 8
Probability with arrangements
Intuition
Definition
Total arrangements of distinct objects: . For two specified objects to be together, treat them as one block: that block plus the other objects is arrangements, times for the block's internal order. So . With repeated letters, divide by the factorial of each repeat count.
Arrangement probability (two together)
- number of objects being arranged
- favourable: glue the pair () and order them internally ()
Worked example
- Total arrangements: .
- Glue A and B into one block: the block plus 3 others give arrangements, and the block can be or : favourable .
- Divide: . (Matches .)
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Practice — Level 1 (4 reps)
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- 1.Total arrangements of 4 distinct people?
- 2.4 people in a row: ?
- 3.Number of arrangements of the letters in BOOK?
- 4.6 people in a row: ?
From the bank · past-year question
[Q114 · Sep · 2023]
"Together" = glue into a block, then multiply by the block's internal arrangements
Repeated letters divide the total by the factorial of each repeat count
Concept 8 of 8
Choosing numbers with a property
Intuition
Definition
A number chosen at random from : . When several numbers are chosen together, the denominator becomes . Useful counts: multiples of in number ; consecutive triples among number .
Counting favourable numbers
- how many of are multiples of
Worked example
- Multiples of 3 up to 20: . Multiples of 5: .
- Multiples of both (i.e. of 15): . By inclusion-exclusion, favourable .
- Divide: .
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- 1.From –, ?
- 2.From –, ?
- 3.Consecutive triples among — how many?
- 4.From –, ?
From the bank · past-year question
[Q103 · Sep · 2024]
"Or" on number properties needs inclusion-exclusion
Several numbers chosen at once: denominator is , not
Summary — formulas & gotchas at a glance
A revision cheat-sheet for the formulas and gotchas above. Click any concept name to jump back to its full explanation.
Formulas (7)
- Classical (theoretical) probability
Classical probability
- Axioms, range, complement, and odds
Complement rule and range
- Selection probability with combinations
Selection probability (combinations)
- Probability with dice
Two-dice sample space
- Probability with coins
Coin tosses
- Probability with arrangements
Arrangement probability (two together)
- Choosing numbers with a property
Counting favourable numbers
Watch out for (16)
- An event is a SET of outcomes, not a single outcome→ What is probability? (Random experiments, sample space, events)
- Write or size the sample space before you count anything→ What is probability? (Random experiments, sample space, events)
- The classical formula needs EQUALLY LIKELY outcomes→ Classical (theoretical) probability
- Favourable is a subset of total, so can never exceed 1→ Classical (theoretical) probability
- Odds are not probability: in favour means , not→ Axioms, range, complement, and odds
- "At least one…" almost always means use the complement→ Axioms, range, complement, and odds
- "Drawn together / selected at random" means order does NOT matter — use , not permutations→ Selection probability with combinations
- "At least one of a type" is fastest via the complement→ Selection probability with combinations
- Two-dice outcomes are ORDERED pairs: and are different→ Probability with dice
- Loaded or non-standard dice: faces are NOT equally likely→ Probability with dice
- Sequences are ordered:→ Probability with coins
- Biased coin: do not use equally-likely counting→ Probability with coins
- "Together" = glue into a block, then multiply by the block's internal arrangements→ Probability with arrangements
- Repeated letters divide the total by the factorial of each repeat count→ Probability with arrangements
- "Or" on number properties needs inclusion-exclusion→ Choosing numbers with a property
- Several numbers chosen at once: denominator is , not→ Choosing numbers with a property
Mastery check — 5 interleaved questions
Try each one before clicking. Questions are interleaved across the concepts above, not grouped — interleaving sharpens transfer.
[Q109 · Sep · 2019]
[Q111 · Apr · 2020]
[Q113 · Sep · 2022]
[Q119 · Sep · 2017]
[Q109 · Sep · 2022]
Drill every past-year question on this subtopic
85 questions from the bank — paginated, with cart and Word-export support.